Response to Carrie
Dear Carrie,
First of all, I want to thank you for the comments. This is a new manner of communication and I am happy that someone logged-on as part of the conversation. We have been tracking enrollment figures for the past twenty years and have seen continued growth. Typically, we grow during the months from August through March. At that point it may trail off a bit. Even with the down turn in housing that began in 2006, we have continued to increase our enrollments by approximately 60 students each year. The September 2008 figure of 3,674 that you quoted included some home school students. The Department of Education requires that we follow these students and some of them were mistakenly included during the months of August and September. In addition, the 2007 figure included students that had transferred but were still on our class lists. As I mentioned above, the best estimate is to look at the enrollment figures in January, February and March. While we recognize that during this economic downturn, we may very well see this growth slow. I do not think that it will be a long term trend. During the last such recession in the early 1980’s, Fluvanna saw a similar pattern of limited growth for a couple of years. Once the recession was over, the growth in enrollments restarted and continued for almost twenty years. Fluvanna’s location, low taxes, great schools and community life, makes it certain that families will continue to migrate here to raise their children. I do feel that there is a danger in waiting to begin the building program. Not only will it increase the likelihood that our schools will remain over crowded, but you can expect the costs to be significantly higher. We are at an excellent time to bid out this project and receive the best “bang for the buck.” Actually, this lull in growth works to our advantage. It gives us the time to make the infrastructure changes necessary to meet the increase in demand that is coming. Again, thank you for your comments and feel free to let me know any further thoughts that you might have.
Sincerely,
Dr. Tom Smith
Superintendent
January 5th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
As a new parent here, I am very excited about this project. I don’t have a problem with our current high-school, but we are just not “top notch” yet with our facilities. I want my sons to graduate from a cutting edge facility.
January 15th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
Hi Jared,
While I understand it would be nice to have our children in a “top notch” learning facility, that’s not what our children need. Our economy is in a mess due to the housing bubble. People wanted “top notch” facilities that they could not afford, and it eventually came back to bite them in the butt. We are setting ourselves up for a disaster committing to something much too extravagant for our pocketbook.
Personally I find it is more important for our children to graduate with a “top notch” education than to hail from a “top notch” facility.
Dr. Smith,
I appreciate your taking the time to respond to my comments here (I’m just sorry I didn’t see this sooner). However, I find it hard to believe that:
1. Despite the continued bailouts our federal government is signing off on an almost daily basis now, you fail to acknowledge the impending repercussions. The value of the dollar is going to drop significantly. Prices are going to go up. Wages are not. Residents within this county are NOT going to be able to afford to service this debt being incurred for the new high school. What’s happening on the federal level IS going to hurt us on Main Street, period. This economic downturn is not reminiscent of the early 80’s…it is much worse. (See: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4745612846151727915) It is RECKLESS to push forward right now with this HUGE capital project when our economy is so fragile.
2. As for the enrollment numbers, you’ve got me confused. So you’re saying the 2008 numbers were overstated and the 2007 numbers were overstated…by how much? Can you please point me to exact figures.
I’m afraid there is all this “talk” about growth “trends” but you do not recognize that a large contributor to Fluvanna’s growth is the expansion of the Lake. Well, that’s going to fill up soon, isn’t it? Then what? People are still going to want to move here because…why? Surely it can’t be the low taxes…they’re going to skyrocket, are they not? Maybe not next year, but how about 2-4 years from now? You imagine people will move here because of “great schools”…are you referring to the great education their kids will receive, the great upkeep of the fine improvements made to the current facilities, or the top of the line facilities installed at Pleasant Grove?
3. As for the comment that you fear there is “a danger in waiting to begin the building program” and that we “can expect the costs to be significantly higher”…that is no reason to push forward with an exceptionally large dollar purchase knowing we’re headed into a rapid inflationary period and the projected enrollment growth cannot be substantiated.
Sir, with all due respect, it seems that there is an agenda to build this High School no matter the cost, no matter the need, no matter the circumstance, no matter the ability to service the debt it creates…and its all being done at my expense.
Can you please give me any documented reason to believe otherwise?
Sincerely,
Carrie
January 30th, 2009 at 6:41 am
[...] my surprise, a month and a half later I found he indeed responded to my concerns only a week after I expressed them. He indicated the numbers I had stated were misleading and the [...]